I have had a few people ask me where I think players will rank for next season. I fully intend to post a more complete mock of the 2009 draft this summer, but here are my initial thoughts a day removed from the regular season finale. Rounds One and Two follow:
[First Round]
1. Adrian Peterson :: The undisputed no. 1 pick. In fact, I would just assume to pencil him in as the no. 1 for the 2010 and 2011 drafts barring a significant injury.
2. Matt Forte :: Ranked 7th in rushing yards as a rookie. Caught 63 passes to boot. Durable back in a run friendly scheme.
3. Brian Westbrook :: Mind-boggling abilities as a runner and pass catcher. Best RB through first six weeks of this season. However, McNabb may not be back next year... if not, drop him two spots to 5.
4. Marion Barber :: My gut reaction was that I had him too high, but who else fits this pick?
5. Maurice Jones-Drew :: All-around back heading into prime of career.
6. Frank Gore :: Uninspiring pick here. He's good for about 12 fantasy points per game. I guess that goes for something.
7. Steven Jackson :: The age of the true RB1-type back who totes the ball 300 times a season is long gone. SJax is one of the last remaining relics.
8. Chris Johnson :: Four-three speed. He's real and he's spectacular.
9. Andre Johnson :: Top receiver in next year's draft and definitely a top ten fantasy pick.
10. Larry Fitzgerald :: This offseason will be critical. Who will be the QB? Will Anquan Boldin be back? Will they find a run game? Fitz is good enough to produce on his own, just like Calvin Johnson did. And speaking of...
11. Calvin Johnson :: Megatron!! Unbelievable talent. No QB? No problem.
12. Brandon Jacobs :: The Bad - Highly suspect health & splits carries. The Good - Finally got goaline carries in 2008. The Ugly - Pound for pound the toughest runner to tackle in the NFL.
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The first round is running back heavy and littered with potential land mines, not surprisingly. You'll have to get a little lucky and hope you do not end up with duds, so to speak. You will also notice that there are no quarterbacks in the first round. I do not believe in drafting QBs early, and neither should you [see: Brady, Tom]. My favorites here are obviously Peterson and Forte, with the best value going to Chris Johnson. I also don't think you can go wrong with any of the top three wideouts in the latter half of the first round.
[Second Round]
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Michael Turner
4. Drew Brees
5. Clinton Portis
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Steve Smith
8. Peyton Manning
9. Ryan Grant
10. Thomas Jones
11. Jay Cutler
12. Greg Jennings
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Make no mistake about it, 2009 will be a very deep RB draft. This is the by-product of a strong 2008 rookie class and the running-back-by-committees so many head coaches now deploy. We've got a few breakout players (DeAngelo, the Burner, Thomas Jones and Jennings) and a few players who regressed (LT2, Lynch, Grant). But good value may be had in this round. We also have our first tier of quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see if Peyton's second half did anything to re-establish his top-QB value. I suspect I have probably ranked him too high for many people's liking, but he had an MVP-esque final 8 weeks (minus week 17). So long, Jay. It was nice while it lasted (Cutler was on both my money league fantasy teams this year). His above average 2008 campaign means he's priced himself out of my range for 2009.
Not That Great
17 years ago
I think DeAngelo and Burner definitely go in the first round. Carolina's offense isn't going to change and its going to continue to be running focused. As for Burner? He's only going to get better as Matt Ryan develops. If Matt gets another legitimate receiver (other than White, which I still have trouble dealing with he's a top 10 WR), then he's going to open up more. I think if its a non-PPR league, then the WR fall and those RB take their places, if it is, maybe you're right, I just have trouble swallowing them as a lower rank.
ReplyDeleteThe case for Williams to be a first rounder is going to be made, but I don't think one should jump the gun. All things considered, this was his break out year for him. But what is his regression rate next season? Do we know what his baseline is? In other words, we've seen him at his best, but do we know where he can bottom out once the league figures him out? I need to see DeAngelo's baseline before I am comfortable anointing him the next Gale Sayers.
ReplyDeleteAs for Michael Turner, I have always believed in his abilities (Adam Schulman as my witness). But again, do not jump the gun here. Let's see these guys repeat before crowning them the next great RBs. Let's not forget that Turner also carried the ball 376 times this season. There's a good chance he'll have carried the ball 400+ times after Atlanta's through in the postseason. The last player to carry the ball that many times in a single season was Larry Johnson and he's all but fallen in fantasy obscurity. There's a reason why teams have gone to the running-back-by-committee format, and it is because RBs cannot take this type of pounding for long. Oh, after breaking the single season carries record with 416, Johnson only toted the rock 158 times the next season. Bottom line: Temper your expectations.