The key to predictive analytics is to exploit probabilities and historical trends not previously entertained in the past. The art of winning, as any MoneyBall-era, pimple-faced “Sabermetrician” will tell you, depends on one’s ability to determine the value of a player, and subsequently, determine who or what skill sets are currently being undervalued. This year, the amount of quality wideouts is simply astounding. The critical thing to understand about good receivers is that they are generally very consistent. This concept is central to my argument. I am not suggesting that a receiver will give you the same kind of production as a top 5 running back, but the odds of a wide receiver suffering a devastating injury or just tanking a season are much less common.
Exhibit A: Braylon Edwards, 2008 average draft position (ADP) was 18. Edwards’ 2008 season has been widely criticized as being abysmal. But when you delve in to the numbers, (873 yards, 3 TDs and 2 2-pt conversions), Braylon still managed to average 6.81 fantasy points per game. While 6.81 won’t win you many leagues, and he certainly didn’t help me win mine, that average is not going to kill you, either. At worst those are WR2-type numbers.
Exhibit B: Joseph Addai, 2008 ADP was 6. With a combined total of 751 rushing & receiving yards, and 7 TDs, Addai averaged 8.92 fantasy points per game. He also missed 3 games due to a leg injury. These numbers, and time missed, cannot and should not justify a no. 6 overall spot. Addai-owners were certainly left wanting more.
Now, Exhibit C: Taking the WRs with ADPs in the first two rounds (Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith), this group averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game. And this is including Braylon’s outlier. Without Edwards, the average jumps to nearly 11.5 points per game. That is to say, elite WRs are a pretty sure thing in the NFL.
I have begun bucking the conventional wisdom already by drafting wideouts early in a few mock drafts this year. Generally, I’ve been pleased with this strategy. Of course, all drafts are dictated by the values other owners place on players, but there just are not enough solid RBs in this year’s talent pool for me to justify a high RB selection unless I have a top four pick. The same, however, cannot be said of the wide receiving corp.
1. Randy Moss: ADP – 10 / Projected Numbers – 1450/15.
The NFL's best corner, Nnamdi Asomugha of the Oakland Raiders, says Moss is the toughest receiver to cover. While running routes with backup starter, Matt Cassel, for all of last season, Moss still totaled more than 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Now his partner in crime, Tom Brady, is back. Will he catch 23 TDs again like he did in ‘07? I'd assume not. But can he split the difference? Yes. With 15 or more TDs he will be the #1 receiver this year.
2. Larry Fitzgerald: ADP – 6 / Projected Numbers – 1390/15
Fitz is a monster and right now is going as the first receiver in most drafts. The wide receiver crop this year should have a tremendous yield and you can’t go wrong with either of these choices. Fitz’s numbers will be right up there with Moss, but Warner is old. If Leinart is in there, Fitz’s numbers decline.
3. Andre Johnson: ADP – 9 / Projected Numbers – 1410/13
He led the league in yards last season, but low TD totals (8) held him back from being the best fantasy receiver in ’08. I see that number going above double digits this season. The Texans look to be a better team this year with a balanced offense. AJ might not get quite as many yards, but the TDs will keep him near the top.
4. Calvin Johnson: ADP – 14 / Projected Numbers – 1300/12
Megatron is about as exciting a player as you can find. Any ball thrown in his direction can instantly turn into a home run. When you consider the QB turnover in Detroit and a team that did not win a single game, Johnson managed to be a top 5 fantasy receiver. Despite being the only true weapon, defenses still could not cover him. In ’09 it won’t matter if it is Stafford, Culpepper or Al Bundy; Megatron will produce.
5. Reggie Wayne: ADP: 18 Projected Numbers – 1280/10
Manning doesn’t have to feign interest in throwing to old man Harrison this year and Wayne will have the young and talented Anthony Gonzalez lining up opposite of him. I see both those factors contributing to a bit of an uptick in production. I’d look for his 6 TDs last year to move back up to his 9 and 10 from ‘06 and ‘07.
6. Roddy White: ADP – 24 / Projected Numbers – 1300/9
Admit it, you are probably just as shocked as I am to see Roddy White ranked this high. He will be the receiver that either makes me look really schmart or like a real schmuck. Either way, there is no denying his numbers from last season. They were simply brilliant: 1382/7; and he could have been had in the 7th round! With Matt Ryan a year wiser and in a system White excels in, Roddy can only improve.
7. Greg Jennings: ADP – 21 / Projected Numbers – 1260/9
There is no reason to think Jennings will not continue to improve in his 4th season in the league and 2nd with Aaron Rodgers. His TD numbers actually decreased by 3 last year even though his receptions increased by 27! That’s a little unlucky and I see that number moving back up this year.
8. Marques Colston: ADP – 25 / Projected Numbers – 1250/9
Injuries have been the culprit that’s kept Colston from being a perennial top 5 receiver. The man is a machine when he’s on the field, and yes, I’m partial to Marques because I have owned him the previous two seasons. Colston is like that aloof buddy of yours who rarely hangs out, but when he does, he’s a complete riot. Besides, Drew Brees hands out yards like they’re Louisiana food stamps and all Colston needs to do is stay on the field to collect them.
9. Steve Smith: ADP – 22 / Projected Numbers – 1220/8
Jake Delhomme will force the ball in to Mighty Mouse’s hands and he will somehow catch them and if he doesn’t stop to punch a teammate in the face first. With DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart becoming a prominent running force, it should give Smith a little sliver of space to run crazy on the opposing team’s secondary.
10. Anquan Boldin: ADP – 26 / Projected Numbers – 1050/9
Boldin has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL over the last four years. But like Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry McGuire, he gets none of the respect, and certainly none of the dough. His contract disputes with Arizona has been stated ad nauseum but if he suits up and stays healthy, he will get his, just like last year, and the year before and the year before that…. You get the picture.
I like what you are saying here. If you look back to my previous drafts, I often load up on WR early if an elite RB is unavailable. That being said, I would be highly surprised to see a lot of other people taking on the same school of thought. According to this, there will be 4 WR chosen in the first 15 picks. I would be shocked if that happens to be honest because I think people playing fantasy for as long as we have, have trouble getting over the hill of choosing RB RB RB in their first picks. I guess we'll see with this upcoming season.
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