For all intents and purposes, Justin Upton’s season began on April 26, 2009. Prior to that date, through 15 games, he was batting below the Mendoza line (.190) and was on the verge of getting sent down to Triple-A Tucson. In fact, it had gotten so bad that he asked to sit during Arizona’s April 21 tilt against the Colorado Rockies to clear his head. Although the promise of Upton’s future was never in doubt, the former number one draft pick out of Norfolk, VA appeared destined for a mediocre 2009 season.
Diamondback’s rookie Manager, A.J. Hinch, was in the unenviable position of making the call: sit him, play him, or send him down to the Minors to work things out. At the time, Upton was striking out at a torrid pace (14 Ks through 14 games) and was mired in an 8-for-46 slump. Even worst, his slump affected his plate discipline (3:14 BB:K ratio) and his power (only two extra-base hits). These streaks go largely unnoticed in the midst of a season, but they tend to be magnified when you begin the year off like this. Compound his slow start with the D-Backs losing 11 out of their first 14 games and Hinch had himself a real issue.
The drawbacks of keeping Upton in Arizona were immense. If you let a 21-year-old struggle indefinitely, it could stunt their mental development. Ask any coach and they’d tell you that demoting a player after 15 games is not the same as demoting someone after 30 games, or even 2 months. There’s a fine line between sending someone down to work on a few mechanical flaws and sending someone down because you have lost confidence in their ability to hit major league pitching. Those messages can easily be misconstrued, and as a coach you never want the latter. If you wait too long to make a move, there’s a very real possibility of ruining a fragile psyche, particularly if they’re young and used to having success.
Ultimately, Hinch made the decision to stick with the young star and let J-Up hit his way out of his slump.
Hinch’s gamble paid off. Justin’s turnaround may be traced back to his April 26 game against the San Francisco Giants. In this game, Upton walked twice in his first two at bats, almost doubling his season totals (from 3 to 5). In the seventh inning, he hit a sharp single up the middle off Matt Cain for a base hit. Then, in the bottom of the ninth down 2-4, J-Up launched a towering 2-run home run to left field off closer Brian Wilson to tie the game. The Diamondbacks would eventually win, 5-4, with Upton keying the comeback.
Since that April 26 contest, Upton has hit safely in 27 of 30 games with a .388 batting average. The power is also coming along. He has 9 home runs in 175 total plate appearances this year and nearly all of them coming in the last 30 games. While plate discipline will continue to be a problem, his numbers are fairly typical of young power hitters. However, I believe Upton’s batting potential is limitless once he harnesses the strike zone and increases his contact rate. Of the balls put in play by J-Up, .415 or nearly 42% find a hole. Essentially, he’s hitting the ball hard and hitting it in places the defender is not.
Justin Upton’s turnaround this season has been nothing short of remarkable, especially when you consider his age and how much more room he has to grow. His OPS shot up nearly 400 points since April 26, from .610 to 1.041. I foresee a bright future for this young man. Upton will be a legitimate number one fantasy pick in three years or less.
No comments:
Post a Comment